In less than 24 hours the world will have at least one shiny new bauble that will adorn palms, pockets and purses by the end of the month.
What is most interesting about the release of the new iPhone(s) is the overall timing. Not the time of year, but the timing in the lifecycle of an average iPhone owner.
According to mobile analytics firm Localytics, there is a pretty widespread market of iPhone devices in the market right now. Note: These are US numbers, but I suspect they reflect most markets.
I’ve seen these numbers in a few articles now and all point to the strength of the iPhone 5 — still hoarding over 1/4 of the device marketshare and only 2% points ahead of the iPhone 5s.
This is great news for Apple and the telcos as these devices are just about to come off the 2 year contracts that most of us took up when the iPhone 5 was released in September 2012. On that day the nine key Apple markets inhaled the iPhone 5 for all it was worth — the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore all went nuts for the taller and slimmer model…and who could blame us!
However, if you go a little further back in time in the Localytics data you see that the iPhone 4/4s and the “Other” category (presumably iPhone 3G/3Gs) account for another 40% of the current device marketshare. These are all devices that are over 3 years old and in most cases are running iOS 6 or struggling with iOS 7. Most were probably the first smartphone their owners bought.
Roll-up all the iPhone devices that are 5 or earlier and you have something in the order of 66% — (two thirds) of the current market — primed, unencumbered by contracts, and ready for the next big thing from Cupertino.
A Blessing and a Curse…
Apple now has a timing problem. Many devotees bought or upgraded to the iPhone 5c/5s in the past 12 months because “…we just had to!”. We’re in the minority. Conversely, there are people whose iPhone 3G/3Gs/4/4s had finally given up the will to live, re-contracted to the latest models and are perfectly happy with their 5c/5s — or they’ve moved to Android with the slew of new models from LG, Samsung and HTC.
The trick now for Apple is that there is 1/3 of the market — probably the most ravenous of Apple fans — that are under contract (and I am) and in most cases we’re perfectly happy with them. What’s in tomorrow’s launch for me?
Tuesday’s launch is going to be Tim Cook’s opus. There’s going to be something for everyone.
This is where the wearable/home offering comes in to augment the launch of new devices and the release of iOS 8.
- There will be at least one new smartphone device for more than half of the current iPhone owners on the planet.
- There will be a wearable device (to be called something other than iWatch I suspect).
- Finally, I think there will be a far deeper dive into our homes. This is where Home Kit and Family Sharing are going to help Apple surge ahead of the competition. I’ve just dropped a small fortune on an AV system at home and whilst it’s brilliant — it’s also a bit fiddly and disjointed. At last count there are 8 different manufacturers that make up my entertainment system — Apple amongst them. Over to you Tim, Sir Jony, Dan and Craig.
iOS 8 — More Than Just a New Operating System
I’ve had iOS 8 (Beta) on my old iPhone 5 for few months now and when I spoke to my old mate Charlie Brown on Life & Technology back in June it was clear that Health and Home Kit were a big part of the future of iOS.
A late starter to the iOS 8 Beta was an app called Tips. It arrived in the Beta 4 update in mid-July. Think of Tips as a How-To… app that works across the entire iOS system on your device. Every week new tips and tricks are pushed to your device to ensure you’re getting the most from it.
Remember those 40% of users who are own a device that’s more than 3 years old…
What About iPad?
I’m unsure as to what the future holds for iPad. It would make sense for the iPad Air and iPad Mini to get a hardware update. Higher resolution screens, Touch ID to make purchases easier, and presumably the next generation chip and possibily 128GB or 256GB storage. We could see all of these — or only one or two.
Much like the iPhone, there’s a definite lag in iPad turnover. The iPad 2 (launched in March 2011!) has over 1/3 of the total market when combined with the original iPad numbers below. The iPad Air launched less than a year ago has a paltry 12% share.
The Bottom Line
When Apple builds a great product and markets it well they create a perfect storm for themselves. However, every year the world swings its attention away from the tragic and the trivial and we briefly look into the future — not too far, but far enough — and we marvel at how Apple does it and more importantly, how they keep it all so quiet.
Tomorrow will be different. Tomorrow will be big. Tomorrow will change so much and yet it will all be very familiar.
And as far as timing is concerned, we’ll know all by 10:41am (3:41am Sydney time) because all Apple devices in advertising campaigns and on their website are set to 9:41am — the traditional time (41 minutes from the start) in a Steve Jobs keynote by when the major product reveal should have been done.
